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  • 富国:美国通胀数据良好 为12月加息大开绿灯

    时间:2016-10-19 07:04:02  来源:  作者:
    ――富国银行(Wells Fargo)分析师周二(10月18日)表示,日内公布的美国9月CPI数据表明,美国的通胀情况有力支持美联储于今年12月开启加息。

    该行称,由于能源和住房成本的上升,美国9月的CPI上涨幅度达到过去五个月以来最快水平,而消费通胀的上升,有力支持了美联储将于今年12月加息的预期。

    该行称,由于能源和住房成本的上升,美国9月的CPI上涨幅度达到过去五个月以来最快水平,而消费通胀的上升,有力支持了美联储将于今年12月加息的预期。

    该行表示,正如美联储9月政策会议纪要所言,美联储大部分官员仍然认为,美国正在积极向2%的有效通胀目标迈进,而此次的CPI数据无疑印证了这一预期;虽然一些官员认为,美国通胀数据和劳动参与率之间的关系仍然相对较低,且通胀预期仍有下调的风险,但核心通胀的持续增强,证据表明薪资增长加速、资源利用率的提升、以及油价的企稳等因素均表明通胀的走高,进而为经济前景的增强增添了信心。

    该行称,预计美国的CPI将于2017年初重回2%大关;倘若通胀一直向美联储确定的目标迈进,那么美联储在今年12月的政策会议上加息也就水到渠成了。

    US CPI keeps rising in line with expectations for a December Fed rate hike - Wells Fargo

    According to analysts from Wells Fargo, today"s US CPI data shows an inflation trend that supports a December rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

    Key Quotes:

    “On the strength of energy and shelter costs, headline CPI inflation rose at the fastest pace in five months in September. On balance, consumer inflation is trending in line with expectations for a December Fed rate hike.”

    “As reported in the September FOMC meeting minutes, most Fed officials still expect to see continued progress towards the Committee"s 2 percent inflation objective. Today"s CPI report only strengthens those expectations. While some officials noted the “apparent low responsiveness of inflation to the rate of labor utilization” and a possible downward shift in inflation expectations, confidence in the outlook remains firm with the continuation of core inflation strength, additional evidence of higher wage growth, tightening resource utilization and firmer oil pricesall supportive to higher inflation over time.

    “Our outlook continues to project headline CPI inflation creeping up to 2 percent by early 2017. Assuming inflation continues to make progress towards the Fed"s 2 percent target, we believe most Fed officials will be comfortable voting for a rate increase at their December 14 FOMC meeting.”

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